Harvard's Joint Center projects homeowners will spend $527 billion on improvements and repairs in the year to September 2027, up 1.5%

The Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University projects that American homeowners will spend $527 billion on improvements and repairs in the four quarters ending in September 2027, 1.5% more than in the four quarters before. The projection comes from the Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity, or LIRA, a quarterly forecast that the Joint Center's Remodeling Futures Program released on October 22, 2026. The Joint Center estimates spending in the four quarters through September 2026 at $519.7 billion, up 2.1% on the year before.

The LIRA counts spending on owner-occupied homes, both work done by professionals and work owners do themselves. The Joint Center reports each quarter as a four-quarter moving total, the sum of that quarter and the three before it, so the figure for the fourth quarter of a year equals spending for that calendar year.

Spending has held between $501.2 billion and $522.0 billion since the end of 2022

By the Joint Center's estimates, homeowner spending on improvements and repairs rose from $277.3 billion in the four quarters ending March 2016 to $515.9 billion in the four quarters ending December 2022. Since then it has stayed in a narrow range, from a low of $501.2 billion in the four quarters through September 2024 to a high of $522.0 billion in the four quarters through March 2026. The latest estimate, $519.7 billion, is 0.7% above the level at the end of 2022.

The annual rate of change shows the same turn. Growth peaked at 26.3% in the four quarters ending December 2022, fell below zero by the end of 2023 and bottomed at minus 2.5% in the third quarter of 2024. It has been positive since the second quarter of 2025. The Joint Center projects 2.4% for the four quarters ending December 2026, then 0.5% and 0.6% in the first two quarters of 2027 and 1.5% in the third.

The Joint Center raised its projection for mid-2027 to $521.6 billion from $519 billion

Rachel Bogardus Drew, who directs the Remodeling Futures Program, pointed in the release to the two inputs most tied to renovation work:

“Retail spending on building products has been flat to negative, and remodeling permits have stagnated, which points to continued sluggish renovation activity.”

Chris Herbert, the Joint Center's managing director, said housing starts continue to decline and the wider housing market remains weak, and that these conditions could slow growth in remodeling spending further.

The October projection is a little higher than the one the Joint Center published on July 23, 2026. That release projected growth of 0.5% and spending of $519 billion for the four quarters ending June 2027. The new release puts the same period at 0.6% and $521.6 billion. Both releases put growth for the four quarters through September 2026 at 2.1%. The Joint Center also notes that the Census Bureau re-benchmarked its monthly retail sales estimates in September 2026, which changed some LIRA spending estimates back to 2018 by less than 1%.

Retail sales of building materials carry 19.6% of the improvement model

A leading indicator is a figure that tends to move a few months before the thing it predicts. The LIRA combines eight of them in two models, one for improvements and one for maintenance and repair. Each input gets a weight and a lead time, the number of quarters by which it has tended to run ahead of spending. The improvement model leans most on retail sales of building materials, at 19.6% of its weight. The maintenance model leans most on gross domestic product, at 32.3%. The Joint Center publishes only the combined result of the two models.

The LIRA's $519.7 billion is in current dollars, before inflation

The Joint Center says every LIRA input and output is nominal, which means in current dollars with no adjustment for inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index for goods that go into residential maintenance and repair stood at 342.798 in September 2026, 9.7% above September 2025.

The two series measure different things. The LIRA counts what homeowners spend, and the index tracks what producers charge for the goods used in the work. If a contractor's materials costs move with that index, a budget that grew about 2% in a year buys less material than it did a year earlier.